Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Nifty - Weakness Ahead ??

Nifty peaked at 8590 during Dec 2014 and has corrected since to a low of 7970 only to bounce back to 8300-8400 levels,   though the overall trend has been down. The bounce back may be considered as a retracement in a medium term downtrend or sideways market.

A look at the monthly chart and the accompanied TTO shows that the trigger line is about to cross the zero line indicating further weakness in the indices in the months ahead or a sideways market with a range of 8600-7800. Any adverse news flow is likely to accelerate the fall  with weak buying support at lower levels and FII having booked profit at higher levels.

There seems to be a light shift in the fundamentals as reality check sets in and investors adapt wait and watch approach before committing any fresh funds to Indian markets.

CNX Nifty Monthly

The weekly chart below indicates a weakening trend but no major downside as all the trend oscillators remain above zero. However the weakness is likely to persist for a few months well after the budget as the government may not announce any major policy reforms to the utter disappointment of the investors.

CNX Nifty Weekly


Wednesday, January 7, 2015

Blame it on Greece !!!


Greece has once again become the culprit which triggered the fall in world equity markets. This in not the first time in the last few years when Greece has been made the scapegoat to justify the fall in the stock markets.

It ironical, but true the same set of factors are responsible for the correction in the markets randomly whenever the markets required a correction. The fact remains that these  are not overnight developments and have existed all along but just been brought to the forefront whenever markets are overbought and needed a correction. Some of the factors which have been reasoned with the fall:

1.Greece default,
2. EU slowdown,
3. Chinese growth revival concerns,
4. Japanese recession,
5. US recovery,
6.  Asset bubbles (who created them) ??
7. Oil prices and many more.

These  factors have been well researched , however are sidelined when investment managers are flushed with liquidity and need to  invest in equity, but picked up selectively to justify the market fall.

The fact is, markets have their own rhythm and need to correct from time to time whether for profit booking or for attracting newer players at lower levels. Of  late almost all the major markets were extremely overbought for a long period and need a correction, which is what is happening now.

Funnily, the oil prices which was a reason for concern for the developed and developing nations have now become a cause of worry due to more than 50% correction. The US which invested billions of dollars in Shale gas to neutralize the dominance of OPEC is worried about the lower oil demand. It is entirely possible that the fall in oil prices is just technical in nature and does not reflect the demand slowdown and world recession. It is only a matter of time before the oil prices find their new equilibrium between the highs and lows of the last few years.

So wait for the correction to get over and the market pundits once again dig out some green shoots and sing in chorus !!

Monday, January 5, 2015

Rupee Heading to Previous Lows ???


 

After touching Rs.58.35 mark against USD, the Indian Rupee has been weakning as discussed in our post  USDINR Technically dated May 2, 2014  and seems to be heading to the previous lows of 66-68.The following chart from the said post indicated a reversal and move towards 68 levels.




The following daily chart indicating momentum seems to be building and once 63.80 is crossed conclusively, INR may rapidly move to 66-67 levels.






Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Nifty in Sharp Correction !!

With the sharp correction Nifty is racing downward and seems to be in a big hurry to reach its  target of 7700 which we had predicted  in our earlier posts when Nifty was at  8550 levels. However, we were wrong to predict that December would be a lackluster period for the markets.

http://eqtrend.blogspot.com/2014/12/nifty-update-on-daily-weekly-charts.html
http://eqtrend.blogspot.com/2014/11/nifty-touches-crucial-target-zone-8400.html
http://eqtrend.blogspot.com/2014/10/qe-nifty-update-elliott-wave-count.html

All significant supports have been broken as Nifty sliced through them effortlessly without any support coming in from FIIs who have turned out to be big sellers. The profit booking was already on the cards with Nifty running ahead of itself.

Technically,  Nifty should have reversed from 8400 and a rise from 8400 to 8600 was nothing but an opportunity to book profit at higher levels, book short positions and a  trap for those who predicted one way run of Nifty to 8800 -9000 levels.

 In our previous posts   we had clearly indicated the Nifty to be in the last leg of the up move as seen from the from the following TTO chart. In the following hourly chart, the hourly trend oscillator had fallen below the daily oscillator and had the effect of weakening the momentum. The highlighted area in the TTO indicator shows that momentum had started weakening from 8400 levels and all subsequent up moves were an exercise to book profits and creating short positions and traders should  have been careful with their positions. As the indices continue to be in oversold zone, traders should watch out before creating any fresh positions.


Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Begining of the much awaited Correction ??

Nifty has fallen below 8400 with short term charts showing some divergence with Nifty taking a breather. The indices need to rise above 8400 immediately, else the correction may continue into a full A-B- C correction as discussed in earlier post with target of 7700.

Monday, December 1, 2014

Nifty Update On Daily & Weekly Charts


Nifty has more or less attained most probable targets at 8600, but is still showing some strength as sentiments continue to remain bullish and people still don't forsee a trend reversal. This may result in a time correction if  levels of 8400 are held. If broken, we may see the begining of  A-B-C correction with Nifty touching the lower level of 7700.

The TTO trend oscillators of long, medium and short term continue to be above zero, which rules out any serious correction.

The RBI policy tomorrow will define the market direction from hereon till budget expectations set in. FII activities are likely to be lacklusture during December and we may see a rangebound market during the month.



Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Nifty Touches Crucial Target Zone 8400 !!

Nifty today crossed the target zone of 8400, only to retreat below the level with the oscillators reaching overbought zone. The rally from 7800 to 8400 may well be the wave 5  as discussed in earlier posts

 Why 8400 could be Critical : Nifty Elliott Wave Count.
QE &Nifty Update : Elliott Wave Count

A fall below 8350 may result in correction setting in and may pull back the indices below 8000. Else, the rally may continue to the next probable wave 5 target of 8650.