NIFTY : Top at 11,000 and A Corrective 2018 ??

The Indian indices has given excellent returns during the last two years.

Nifty has moved from 6825 to 8555 during 2016 and from 7893 to 10443 during 2017 giving an absolute  return of  25% and 32% respectively. With an inverse head and shoulder target of 11,000 on monthly charts, Nifty is likely to top out by March 2018 and begin a corrective phase which is may last the entire 2018 and probably 2019 till the outcome of the general elections.

The monthly chart of Nifty indicate  a slowing momentum which is likely to cross over to negative zone marking the beginning of corrective phase in Nifty. The placement of trend oscillator is identical to  2015, which triggered a year long correction.

The correction may also coincide  with a populist budget the government may present a year ahead of the elections in 2019 and compromise on the fiscal discipline.

Nifty Monthly

What is India VIX indicating ??

VIX (Volatility Index) generally have a negative correlation to the underlying stock/index i.e. higher the VIX, greater is the possibility of a correction and deeper will be correction.

The TTO of India VIX (monthly)  has  been hovering around zero since 2014. Though, there have been intermittent  spikes which have played out by way of minor corrections on the Nifty.

Here is what the long term trend of India VIX captured  on TTO looks like, with the long term  trends now firmly trending in bearish territory and the recent correction indicated by a spike in the trend trigger.

With long term India VIX indicating a bearish bias, will the negative correlation hold out for Nifty??

India VIX (Monthly)

Nifty May Retrace To 8900 !!

Nifty has retraced 400 points in the last 10 days, since the top it made on August 2 at 10130. The geo-political developments are likely to stretch for a few months till things sort out themselves. In any case, Nifty was running ahead of parameters, both technical and fundamental and required a bit of cooling down.

This probably marks the beginning of long awaited major correction for an up move which started in January 2017, taking Nifty from 8,000 to 10,100 a staggering 25%  in about 7 months, an astonishing 50% annualized return by the indices.

The Nifty is likely to retrace to 8900-9000 levels, which would be a 50%  pullback of the entire up move since the beginning of the rally which is likely to last three months till October 2017. Though, there are two major support levels at 9700 and 9250 but it remains to be seen if they can hold for Nifty to make a reversal.

Here, is the visual summary of short trade on Nifty from 10100 levels which has already given handsome  profit for the short traders.

Apple : Time To Book Profit ??

It has been a good run on Apple since the last buy signal @95 on monthly.

The trend trigger has been losing momentum, while the price touches the  upper trend line.

Much of the rise has been on thinning volumes, is it time to book profit ??

Apple Monthly

Trend Transition and SBA

Example of Trend Transition (Crossover) and Synchronized Bullish/ Bearish Alignment (SBA) . Create  trading positions  in advance using trend transition and  SBA  to capture trending moves  (large profit with short trade) especially playing naked option positions.

Nifty Could Be Heading to 11,000 !!

Having overcome the resistance at 8990 with a gap up, Nifty is now trading close to 9150.

On the weekly charts, Nifty has formed inverse H&S pattern with neckline at 9085, sustaining above which Nifty is all set to climb higher levels with a target of 11,000.

The target may be achieved by March 2018,  approx 12 months from now. This is the time Nifty has taken from its lows (Head) in March 2016 till it achieved the breakout above the neckline.

Super Rally on DOW !!

The Dow Jones industrial average just jumped 1,000 points in 24 trading days, vying for one of the fastest jumps on record.

If the Dow closes above 21,000 on Wednesday, that ties it with the index's run in 1999, when the Dow climbed from 10,000 to 11,000 in 24 trading days, according to Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial.

The 1,000-point moves become less impressive on a percentage basis, however.

The Dow climbed 10 percent in 1999, while it's risen only 5 percent in the move from 20,000 to 21,000.

Read the full article ....

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/01/dow-21000-may-tie-as-shortest-1000-point-jump-ever.html

Super Rally to Unfold on Dow ??

Synchronized  Bullish Alignment on DJIA !!

The trend oscillators across three time frames are aligned in a rare  bullish mode on DJIA which could result in super rally  unfolding  in the next few weeks,  taking Dow to dizzy highs.

As the trigger (yellow dotted) line positions itself to cross the zero, a buy signal is generated on Triple Trend Oscillator. The long term trend oscillator is above zero and rising indicating a bullish outlook in the next few months.

Irrespective of Trump policies, Dow is all set to scale new highs which will have positive implications for world markets.

Dow Weekly

Update March 2, 2017 :

Super Rally On DOW !!!

25 days and a 5% rally (from 20090 to 21115) on #DOW, predictive analysis based on Triple Trend Oscillator.

Dow Weekly

What popular indicators predicted for DOW on February 8, 2017 ??

Nifty Poised for a Breakout ??