Tata Motors & BREXIT

One of the major Indian stock whose fortunes are directly affected by BREXIT is   Tata Motors which owns  Jaguar Land Rover (JLR).  The stock  saw a collapse on the news of Britain exiting the EU, falling  from Rs. 490 to a low of Rs. 422 on the news and recovered to Rs.440.

The immediate impact of the event on Jaguar Land Rover' (JLR) financial is unknown but it is estimated that by  2020 JLR is likely to incur a loss of  1 billion Pound due to Britain's exit from the EU. The hit is likely to com from a 10 per cent levy on vehicles being exported to Europe and 4 per cent on imports of components for the production of vehicles.

Technically, Tata Motors is riding an intermediate uptrend, having broken above Rs. 420 with a large volume, after  making a double bottom at Rs. 295 earlier. The  stock took support at at Rs. 420 on BREXIT news and has been currently trading above it.

The intermediate TO on TTO is placed above zero, with Synchronized Bullish Alignment (SBA), which indicate that once the short term correction is over, the stock is all set to move to higher levels and may touch Rs. 550-560.

In the unlikely event of the stock failing to hold Rs. 420, it may fall back in the range 295-420 for a prolonged period.

Tata Motors Weekly

Can Crude Move Higher, Post Correction ??

Brent  Crude started correcting as it ran into resistance at $ 51.80, monthly 20 EMA and has also developed a negative divergence on the weekly charts, presently  trading below $ 49.45, the 5 week EMA.

The price has not closed below its 5 week EMA  for two consecutive weeks  during 2016 up move, but things look different  this time.  A deeper  correction looks likely as the trigger (yellow dotted) line threatens to cross below zero, indicating a  negative momentum in place for the short term.  This may drive down the price  and  crude may correct to  $ 43-44, where it could find support at the conjunction of 20 & 50 weekly EMA.

Brent Weekly

The intermediate trend remains bullish  with positive divergence on the monthly chart.  Further the  weekly trend oscillator  is gaining momentum to cross over zero, which implies  further upside for crude. It would be interesting to see if the resumption of uptrend after the present  correction could propel Brent to $65 levels.

Brent Monthly

Crude is unlikely to revisit $ 30 in the near future, with the crossing of weekly trend oscillator above the monthly trend oscillator, indicating a bottom is in place.

To sum up,  we may be looking at higher levels in Brent, once the short term correction is over.

See also :  Brent Heading to $65 ?

Nifty Bull Run to Continue !!

 Nifty seems to be taking a breather with the Grexit, Rajan exit and Fed rates worrying the markets. The Indian monsoon is a crucial event eagerly awaited by the market. Markets do what they have to technically and events don't drive the market.  Nifty has  performed well  against the odds so far and is well placed technically to move higher.

The indices has been making higher highs and the corrections have been shallow indicating that bull market is in place. With all three short, inter and long trend oscillators on daily TTO charts firmly placed above zero, Nifty seems to be consolidating as the minor trend corrects from the overbought position. This represents a time correction in a bull market. With the Synchronized Bullish  Alignment (SBA) pattern on the TTO, another sharp up move is likely in the next few days, taking out the resistance at 8300-35 levels.

Nifty Daily with SBA

On the weekly TTO charts, the  short and intermediate trend oscillators are set to cross the long trend oscillator in the next few weeks. The crossover will result in a blowout rally, something witnessed during 2014 which could result in Nifty taking out the previous high and reach higher targets.

Nifty Weekly