What is Ailing Reliance ??

Reliance has been one of the worst performer market heavyweight of the last few months.

The under performance started around June 15, when Nifty was at 7500 from where it touched a high of 8179. Reliance on the other hand has struggled to cross Rs.1000 mark and has declined from a high of  Rs. 1135 to Rs. 970. Even at the present levels, the stock is precariously poised as several chart pattern indicate serious downside if the current level were to break conclusively.  The trend oscillators are bearishly aligned for further downside should the present support levels break.

So what is ailing Reliance ??

The government has slapped an additional penalty of USD 579 mn (Rs. 3500 crores) for producing less gas than target from its KG-D6 block. The total penalty Reliance will have to pay from April 2010 would be USD 2.36 bn (Rs. 14,200 crores).


The Supreme Court has appointed a retired Australian judge Michael Kirby as Chairman of the three-member arbitration panel to resolve the dispute between the Centre and  Reliance Industries Ltd on KG basin.


Any adverse news flow on this front may result in breakdown in Reliance could seriously impact the market as the stock is likely to lead the market down.

Watchout this crossover !!

Every time this crossover has happened past few months, Nifty has moved up significantly.

Is this indicating another big move in Nifty ???

CNXIT makes a new High !!!

CNXIT makes a new high of  11,261   at the time of writing this post today and in the process have crossed our target of 11,200 predicted on June 25, 2014 in our post   Is the Worst over for Tech Stocks ??                 

           

Is the Worst over for Tech Stocks ???

Using Triple Trend Oscillator with Market Profile Charts

As anticipated, Nifty completed its small correction and  reversed to achieve its higher target, which could be around 8400 levels. The correction could be labeled wave (iv) and wave (v) has now started with an long entry placed at 7970, the crossing of weekly POC as per the following Market Profile chart with TTO. The buy signal generated by TTO (  zero crossover of the dotted line) is accompanied by price crossing the POC, thereby giving added confirmation.

An advanced trend reversal technique used in TTO can be  used to confidently enter a long position as TTO  starts indicating the impending trend reversal with trend oscillators crossover as can be seen in the following chart. The crossover 1,2 and 3 have already taken place which has resulted in more than 100 point jump in Nifty. Crossover 4 will result in Nifty touching new highs. Each subsequent crossover confirms the trend  and new positions can be added.

Why 8400 could be Critical : Nifty Elliott Wave Count

The level of 8400 could turn out to be a critical level for Nifty as can be seen from the Nifty chart below.

Alt 1 : Wave 3/3 extension complete and start of wave 4,
Alt 2 : Wave 5 complete and start of A-B-C correction.

If the wave count holds, in either case we are likely to see a major correction post 8400 as the charts indicate now.  The TTO indicating  a possible wave 5 in progress but whether it is major 5 or 5/3 is yet to be confirmed.

Indian Bull Market : In Retrospect

As Nifty surges ahead to strike 8200 ,below is the collection of our posts, as the new Indian bull market unfolded itself and we were able to pretty much stay ahead and forecast the trend ahead  :

 

 

CNXENERGY : Poised for Big Upmove ???

CNXENERGY has formed  an inverse H&S and may be poised for a big up move with a target of  10,400.






With the gas pricing decision round the corner, Reliance, ONGC and Oil India  could be the big beneficiaries. ONGC has conveyed to the government that it needs a price of $6-7 per unit to make its plan for producing gas from new and ageing fields in the next few years viable.

Gas price hike will benefit ONGC, Oil India   more as they produce more than 70 percent of India’s gas requirement.