The Brent Chart Which Is Scaring The Oil Producers !!

The oil producing and exporting countries like Russia, Brazil and the OPEC are in a tizzy with the falling oil prices since 2014.

Tumbling oil prices have brought Brazil to the brink of economic collapse, with the world's seventh largest economy sinking into recession.

Russia has been forced to dip heavily into its hard-currency reserves and its currency, the ruble, is approaching historic lows. Moscow, which was in recession in 2015 according to economists, is running a budget deficit of 3 percent of gross domestic product this year, and the government is looking to cut 10 percent from the federal budget.

OPEC countries which enjoyed the oil boom in the last decade are suddenly under severe economic strain.

The following monthly chart indicate Brent trading in long term  downward sloping channel with the bottom placed at USD 10.50. If Brent continues to follow the trend it may hit this target, which was the price of crude during 1998-99. With charts indicating  long term weakness, it remains to be seen if the lower levels could be reached in future.

Brent Monthly

 Oil is, however presently oversold is likely to see a bounce up to USD 41 and even to an intermediate resistance of USD 63.50. The long term forecast however is unlikely to change till USD 63.50 is crossed on the upside.

USDINR Topping Out ??

USDINR  touched a high of 68.14 and seems to making a topping pattern on the Triple Trend Oscillator monthly charts.

With a multi year double top formation at  68-68.50 levels INR is likely to to strengthen from hereon with 69-69.50 being the upper limit for its weakness. After spending sometime in the 67-69 range it is likely to  retrace to 64 levels in the medium term and strengthen further in the long run.

This however is subject  any intervention by RBI and devalue the Indian currency to meet its policy objectives.

USDINR Monthly

The following chart shows how the Brazilian Real  and Russian Ruble  have caught up  which started with the devaluation of INR during 2012 against USD. With  INR leading the way, chances are Indian Rupee will start the  reversal process as it continues to be one of the best performing currencies in 2015.








See our earlier post regarding USDINR : http://eqtrend.blogspot.in/2015/09/the-present-weakness-could-be-last-weak.html