Nifty Breakout To 8600 ??

The Indian markets are  riding the wave of upswing in global market. Rising crude oil prices reaching a four month high , favorable Chinese data and Fed reluctance to increase the interest rates have helped the global markets in recovery.

Though IMF has cut the global growth forecast from to 3.5% for FY17, it has retained the growth forecast for India to 7.5%, making it the fastest growing large economy in the world. This may help a larger chunk of foreign investment being redirected to India.

After correcting and being in a downtrend for almost 13 months, Nifty seems to have found strength to break out of the falling channel. A spate of favorable news on normal monsoon, lower inflation and hopes of economic recovery  has contributed to improvement in the market sentiments.

The Triple Trend Oscillator has given a buy signal indicating a long term change of trend. The trigger line on the monthly Nifty charts has crossed over zero indicating resumption of uptrend after almost a year. The trigger line crossover has in the past reliably indicated a major trend change. This is coupled by  a channel breakout by Nifty which revises the upward target to  8600.

On the daily charts Nifty has formed a bullish inverse H&S formation with neckline at 7800, which again provides an upside target of 8600 on Nifty.

Nifty may, however face some resistance at 7975 and 8330 levels on the way to 8600.

  See also : http://eqtrend.blogspot.com/2016/03/nifty-probable-elliott-structure.html

 

Gold Heading to $1400 ??

Gold had been trending in a downward sloping channel since 2013 and has now broken out of it, presently trading at $1242.

With the sluggish USD, gold seems to be gaining strength in the short to medium term and may head higher to $ 1400 to test the long term falling trend line.

The rise in gold could be in sync with rising crude oil prices which are likely to hit $65 in the medium term.
See post http://eqtrend.blogspot.in/2016/04/brent-heading-to-65.html

Gold Weekly

Update July,1 2016 :

Jim Roger's endorsement of Gold touching US$ 1400.

Brent Heading to $65 ??

After touching the lows of  $28 Brent moved to $38- $38 levels as indicated in our post  : Has Brent Found Short Term Bottom  .

Facing resistance from the falling trend line,  Brent seems to have over come the resistance,  now trading  at  $41.85  and ready to move higher. With the long term divergence on the monthly charts, brent may be targeting $65-$67 (which is the highest point in the developing divergence) levels in the medium term (end 2016-early 2017).
 

BrentMonthly

The bounce in crude prices, however, may be a retracement in the larger down trend as can be seen from the following  chart, with all the TOs, still trending below zero.
 

Brent Quarterly

Rupee Strength May Surprise in the Long Run !!

INR reached a low of 68.85  against the USD and has reversed as predicted, in the process making a multi year double top formation.

With the trigger line crossing below zero and INR falling below 67 mark (5 month EMA) the reversal may have been confirmed with the next target of 64 and further lower at 58.

USDINR Monthly

 A look at the yearly chart of USDINR indicate multi year divergence between price and momentum. The  TOs reversing indicate rising strength of INR in the coming years.  With the INR reversing from the upper Bollinger Band, it may gain further strength to seek lower targets to test 49 (yearly 20EMA) in the next few years.

USDINR Yearly

Earlier post on USDINR :
http://eqtrend.blogspot.in/2016/01/usdinr-topping-out.html