How the Nifty Top Was Predicted ??

The series of tweets which tracked tracked Nifty to its top :

The earliest indication of a market top were available on  December 19, 2017 with a forced index movement towards 11,000 with declining trend momentum on TTO. 

On January 11, 2018 the bulls were still trying hard to move the index to 11,000 but market was already indicating tiredness as the up move was accompanied by declining A/D ratio as  Nifty also reached the multi year  upper trend line.

Nifty reached its inverse head & shoulder target of 11,000 with highly stretched technical indicators, a reversal was on cards. Momentum carried Nifty to 11,171 but the market was only looking for a trigger.

The trigger came in the form of budget which was though not entirely disappointing, but was reason enough to initiate a long awaited correction.

 A simultaneous development of better than anticipated job growth triggered fears of a high growth rate in the US and  resultant high interest rate with improved bond yield triggered a collapse on DOW.

You don't always need bad news for market corrections !!

The market dynamics have changed from buy on dips to sell on rallies as a major top has been created on Nifty at 11,171.

NIFTY : Top at 11,000 and A Corrective 2018 ??

The Indian indices has given excellent returns during the last two years.

Nifty has moved from 6825 to 8555 during 2016 and from 7893 to 10443 during 2017 giving an absolute  return of  25% and 32% respectively. With an inverse head and shoulder target of 11,000 on monthly charts, Nifty is likely to top out by March 2018 and begin a corrective phase which is may last the entire 2018 and probably 2019 till the outcome of the general elections.

The monthly chart of Nifty indicate  a slowing momentum which is likely to cross over to negative zone marking the beginning of corrective phase in Nifty. The placement of trend oscillator is identical to  2015, which triggered a year long correction.

The correction may also coincide  with a populist budget the government may present a year ahead of the elections in 2019 and compromise on the fiscal discipline.

Nifty Monthly

Nifty May Retrace To 8900 !!

Nifty has retraced 400 points in the last 10 days, since the top it made on August 2 at 10130. The geo-political developments are likely to stretch for a few months till things sort out themselves. In any case, Nifty was running ahead of parameters, both technical and fundamental and required a bit of cooling down.

This probably marks the beginning of long awaited major correction for an up move which started in January 2017, taking Nifty from 8,000 to 10,100 a staggering 25%  in about 7 months, an astonishing 50% annualized return by the indices.

The Nifty is likely to retrace to 8900-9000 levels, which would be a 50%  pullback of the entire up move since the beginning of the rally which is likely to last three months till October 2017. Though, there are two major support levels at 9700 and 9250 but it remains to be seen if they can hold for Nifty to make a reversal.

Here, is the visual summary of short trade on Nifty from 10100 levels which has already given handsome  profit for the short traders.

Nifty Could Be Heading to 11,000 !!

Having overcome the resistance at 8990 with a gap up, Nifty is now trading close to 9150.

On the weekly charts, Nifty has formed inverse H&S pattern with neckline at 9085, sustaining above which Nifty is all set to climb higher levels with a target of 11,000.

The target may be achieved by March 2018,  approx 12 months from now. This is the time Nifty has taken from its lows (Head) in March 2016 till it achieved the breakout above the neckline.

Elliott Wave Update for Nifty

Nifty Poised for US Elections ??

Nifty has been in a consolidation mode since the last month and a half, making a higher base at 8550, a level which assumes significance due to the number of times it has been tested over the previous three months.

Nifty may continue to find strong support at around 8550 which may act as a make or break pivot for Nifty.

With US elections a few weeks away, the  TO on Triple Trend Oscillator are aligned identically as they were just a few weeks before the Indian elections during 2014.

Both, the long and medium TO are placed above zero indicating a bullish bias. The short TO however is showing weakness in the near term which is reflected by the corrective phase of Nifty being witnessed now.

It remains to be seen if the indices will witness a breakout post the outcome of US elections, as it did post Indian elections.

The Elliott wave count may  suggest wave 5 of 3 fell short of its target of 9110 to end 8960 and  we may be witnessing wave 4 correction.  The impending wave 5 continues to have higher target of 9840, we may see during 2017.
See post  : http://eqtrend.blogspot.in/2016/08/elliott-wave-targets-for-nifty-9840.html

Nifty Weekly

Elliott Wave Targets for Nifty : 9840 ??

Nifty completed  sub wave  5-3-4 with a triangle (a-b-c-d-e)  to start   wave 5-3-5. Typical of wave 4, the price pierced the trend line momentarily and reversed to start the new wave.

The major wave 5 is likely to have an extended wave count of 1-2-1-2-3-4-5-4-5.

Based on the principal of wave equality the present wave 5-3-5 is likely to have a target of 9110 ( wave 1= wave 5).

With  wave 5-3 being completed at 9110 it is now possible to derive the overall target of major wave 5 which could touch 9840.

Nifty Entering SuperBull Phase ??

On the Nifty Weekly charts, the intermediate (weekly) TO  has crossed over the long (monthly) TO. This would result in alignment of  the two TO in bullish mode after a long time.

With strong momentum on the short (daily) TO  all the three are positively aligned, which may result in an impulsive move on Nifty in coming days.
 

Nifty Weekly

 
We had discussed the possibility of such a move unfolding in our post dated June 10, 2016 :
Nifty Bull Run to Continue !!