Tuesday, February 6, 2018

How the Nifty Top Was Predicted ??

The series of tweets which tracked tracked Nifty to its top :

The earliest indication of a market top were available on  December 19, 2017 with a forced index movement towards 11,000 with declining trend momentum on TTO. 




On January 11, 2018 the bulls were still trying hard to move the index to 11,000 but market was already indicating tiredness as the up move was accompanied by declining A/D ratio as  Nifty also reached the multi year  upper trend line.


Nifty reached its inverse head & shoulder target of 11,000 with highly stretched technical indicators, a reversal was on cards. Momentum carried Nifty to 11,171 but the market was only looking for a trigger.


The trigger came in the form of budget which was though not entirely disappointing, but was reason enough to initiate a long awaited correction.

 A simultaneous development of better than anticipated job growth triggered fears of a high growth rate in the US and  resultant high interest rate with improved bond yield triggered a collapse on DOW.

You don't always need bad news for market corrections !!


The market dynamics have changed from buy on dips to sell on rallies as a major top has been created on Nifty at 11,171.