Divergent Trends Holding Nifty ??

Nifty seems to have got stuck in a 8100 -8300 range since the last 20 days unable to break above 8300 and  frequent sell off after a higher openings leading to weakening of the short term trend.

The trend is likely to continue for sometime as the trend oscillators on TTO exhibit divergent trends across various time frames.  A few good corporate results and positive news flows (whatever little) have been unable to bring cheers, resulting in a lackluster sideways market.

For a robust market multiple trends need a unidirectional alignment, which is missing at present.

The following is the trend position under various time frames :

Hourly : Down. May bottom out at 8100 or 8055. A close below 8055 calls for a review of the entire trend cycle.

Daily : Mildly Up. Halted due to hourly weakness.

Weekly : Neutral. Daily strength yet to translate into weekly strength. It  may take a few more weeks for the strength to return.

Monthly : Neutral with down bias. With the correction complete at 7540 a break above the down sloping channel at 8400 gives a min. target of 9200. This  is also the long term target based on wave equality (wave 1= wave 5). The possibility of higher targets can be assessed based on the trend positions once min. target is achieved.

Nifty Price Targets : Based on Time Studies

The following are Nifty price targets based on time studies. These targets are purely indicative and need to be verified with the future movement in Nifty.

What drives the equity markets : Growth Vs. Liquidity

The United States economy expanded an annualized 3.9 percent on quarter in the three months to June of 2015,  due to higher consumer and construction spending. It is the highest growth rate in three quarters. GDP Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.25 percent since 1980 until 2015. 
  
Banks Balance Sheet in the United States reached an all time high of 15,512,600 USD Million in September of 2015  from a  low of  below 2,000,000 USD Million in 1980.

During the period 1980 till 2015 the Dow Jones Industrial  Average has grown from  below 3,000 to record all time high of 18,312 in 2015, in spite of poor growth rate but  largely due to increase in money supply as a result of  the QE policy followed by the Federal Reserve.

Maruti : Topping Out ??

Maruti seems to be making a topping formation with a double top at 4700 and  declining momentum on the TTO weekly charts. With all favorable news priced in and worries on account of wage settlement the stock is likely to correct from the current levels.

UPDATE (October 5) : Maruti has corrected from Rs. 4594 to below Rs. 4400 or 4% post our advisory on October 1, in a single trading session !!