Analysing Nifty Trend under Multiple Timeframes !!

The following is the analysis of CNX Nifty under different time frames :

The 15 min chart below shows Nifty retracing in the short term with the short term TO positioned above the 15 min TO indicating the short term strength or short covering before the long holidays coming during the week. This is extremely short term view as the longer TO are in a bear grip as explained in the following charts.

Nifty 15 Minutes

The hourly chart below shows that the short term TO have reached  reversal zone and not much upside may be expected hereon unless there is a trend reversal. All the TOs continue to trend below zero which is  bearish  indicating a downside soon.

Nifty Hourly

The daily chart below shows all the trends in bearish mode and  gap between them still widening indicating the strong downtrend will resume.  This will continue till the chart repair themselves in the form of the short TO rising above the longer TO/ above zero and remaining there for an extended period.

Nifty Daily

The weekly chart below shows the oversold position of the market as the trigger line languishes at the reversal zone but the reversal may come only after the final assault at 8100 as indicated by the bearish position of the short term charts above.

Nifty Weekly

And finally, the monthly chart which is indicating the trigger line crossover below zero after a period of almost 18 months when it crossed over during October 2013 as a prelude to the bull market. This does not however, pose any threat to the bull market as the other TOs continue to be in bullish mode above zero. However, as happened during the previous occasion as seen in the chart,  it may lead to a sideways market for the next couple of months with a range of 7800 to 9100 till such time that the monthly 20 EMA catches up with the price. This will be good period for traders to trade in a well defined range.

Nifty Monthly

TTO Research Paper : Among the Top 10 Downloads on SSRN

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=2581352

Nifty : Is the Price Correction Over ??

Nifty has reached the weekly 20 EMA from where it has revered in the past. The weekly trigger line has also reached the RRZ (Reference Reversal Zone) and may start reversing any time.  However, the real confirmation of a reversal will come only if when Nifty crosses  8665. Till than the indices may oscillate in a band between 8535 and 8665 to complete the time correction.

How ONGC Short Trades Have Paid Off ??

ONGC has been in a downtrend for a while now, giving excellent opportunity to trade short.

Traders could have been rewarded handsomely had they traded short as  follows:

Trade 1 :  Short @ 450 cover @ 400.
                Profit : Rs.50 x 500 (lot size) = Rs. 25,000 per lot

Trade 2 : Short @ 405, cover @ 350
              Profit  : Rs. 55x 500=  Rs. 27,500 per lot

Trade 3 : Short @ 350, cover @   ?? (position open) Current Price : 309
               Profit  : Rs. 41 x 500 = Rs. 20,500 per lot (position still open)
Position close @305. Profit : Rs.45x500 = Rs. 22,500 per lot.

A New Bull in China ??

Shanghai Composite  hits a fresh seven year high at 3546, hitting the highest level since June 2008 and breaks above 3400 after a long consolidation. Predicted 15 days back in our post as the Triple Trend Oscillator (TTO) clearly showed a synchronized bullish alignment pattern developing on the Chinese indices !!  With all the three TO in bullish zone, China is likely to outperform the other emerging markets in near term. The Indian Nifty on the other hand has already run ahead in the last one year and shows a corrective pattern on TTO.

The rise comes at a time when Indian markets have been in corrective/consolidation mode. Could this be the beginning of a new bull market in China ??

Trend Change Forewarned

The whipsaw in Nifty 5 minutes chart was caught by the Triple Trend Oscillator well in advance as the short TO  (twin pink and blue lines) crossed over the medium TO, before the price extremes were made.

 

Will Nifty Bounce from Here ?

Nifty was unable to cross 8750 and fell below 8700 once again. Though the 15 minute TO has crossed over the hourly TO, it remains to be seen if Nifty can bounce from here.

The daily chart indicate that  15 minute TO has reached Reference Reversal Zone (RRZ) and a bounce is not ruled out. In case the Nifty makes a reversal from here, it may attempt a new high one final time.  

Intraday Trade Setup with Triple Trend Oscillator

We have received several requests to explain the intra day trade setup for TTO  and  same is illustrated in the following chart :

Go Long : The short term TO moves above the long TO.
Cover Longs : When the short TO starts falling below the long TO and the price attains one final peak.

Go Short : The shorter TO starts falling below the long TO.
Cover Shorts : When the short TO starts rising above the long TO and the price makes one final bottom.

Long and Short trade setup using 5 minutes chart

 Why is it important to monitor the short TO ??

Any trend change first changes the direction of the short TO before the same is reflected in the long TO.  Hence the short TO forewarns the impending change in trend, thus preparing the trader to act accordingly.

WOCKHARDT PHARMA : TTO saw it coming - Part 2

Update March 11,2015 :
Wockhardt Pharma trading at Rs 1,807.

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Wockhardt has been climbing vertically from its lows in a U shaped pattern as seen in the following weekly chart  and is almost certain to touch its previous high of Rs. 2000.

We had in our earlier post of April 2014 predicted  Wockhardt as a good medium and ling term investment. Since than the scrip has moved four fold to reach Rs. 1660 and is poised to touch Rs. 2000 in the next few weeks.

See our earlier posts :