Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Nifty - Weakness Ahead ??

Nifty peaked at 8590 during Dec 2014 and has corrected since to a low of 7970 only to bounce back to 8300-8400 levels,   though the overall trend has been down. The bounce back may be considered as a retracement in a medium term downtrend or sideways market.

A look at the monthly chart and the accompanied TTO shows that the trigger line is about to cross the zero line indicating further weakness in the indices in the months ahead or a sideways market with a range of 8600-7800. Any adverse news flow is likely to accelerate the fall  with weak buying support at lower levels and FII having booked profit at higher levels.

There seems to be a light shift in the fundamentals as reality check sets in and investors adapt wait and watch approach before committing any fresh funds to Indian markets.

CNX Nifty Monthly

The weekly chart below indicates a weakening trend but no major downside as all the trend oscillators remain above zero. However the weakness is likely to persist for a few months well after the budget as the government may not announce any major policy reforms to the utter disappointment of the investors.

CNX Nifty Weekly