Wednesday, January 7, 2015

Blame it on Greece !!!


Greece has once again become the culprit which triggered the fall in world equity markets. This in not the first time in the last few years when Greece has been made the scapegoat to justify the fall in the stock markets.

It ironical, but true the same set of factors are responsible for the correction in the markets randomly whenever the markets required a correction. The fact remains that these  are not overnight developments and have existed all along but just been brought to the forefront whenever markets are overbought and needed a correction. Some of the factors which have been reasoned with the fall:

1.Greece default,
2. EU slowdown,
3. Chinese growth revival concerns,
4. Japanese recession,
5. US recovery,
6.  Asset bubbles (who created them) ??
7. Oil prices and many more.

These  factors have been well researched , however are sidelined when investment managers are flushed with liquidity and need to  invest in equity, but picked up selectively to justify the market fall.

The fact is, markets have their own rhythm and need to correct from time to time whether for profit booking or for attracting newer players at lower levels. Of  late almost all the major markets were extremely overbought for a long period and need a correction, which is what is happening now.

Funnily, the oil prices which was a reason for concern for the developed and developing nations have now become a cause of worry due to more than 50% correction. The US which invested billions of dollars in Shale gas to neutralize the dominance of OPEC is worried about the lower oil demand. It is entirely possible that the fall in oil prices is just technical in nature and does not reflect the demand slowdown and world recession. It is only a matter of time before the oil prices find their new equilibrium between the highs and lows of the last few years.

So wait for the correction to get over and the market pundits once again dig out some green shoots and sing in chorus !!